The mathematics of the growth for climate change, energy use, food consumption and overpopulation

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The mathematics of the growth for climate change, energy use, food consumption and overpopulation

Arithmetic, Population, and Energy

“1.7 million+ views of a professor giving a lecture about arithmetic? What's going on? You'll just have to watch to see what's so damn amazing about what he (Dr. Albert Bartlett) has to say.

I introduce this video to my students as "Perhaps the most boring video you'll ever see, and definitely the most important." But then again, after watching it most said that if you followed along with what the presenter (a professor emeritus of Physics at Univ of Colorado-Boulder) is saying, it's quite easy to pay attention, because it is so damn compelling.” This is video 1 of 8; see entire playlist, below): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=player_embedded#at=27

The entire playlist of 8 videos for the entire lecture: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=6A1FD147A45EF50D

Poodwaddle.com

Label: Apocalypse, Climate change, Economics, Energy, Environment, Food, Global warming, Overpopulation

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Calamity, Confusion and Greed

Image by Getty Images via @daylife

"Times of great calamity and confusion have been productive for the greatest minds. The purest ore is produced from the hottest furnace. The brightest thunder-bolt is elicited from the darkest storm."

Colton, Charles Caleb · Difficulties

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Economic Cycles

The timing economic cycles is a 'mugs' game. Usually, the cycles never go as planned.

Yet, the timing of the economic outlook in the post made on August 16, 2008 now looks fortuitous.

In the past I have found that just prior to a downturn there seems to be a speculative rush into markets, a 'speculative bubble', just before an end of increases and the beginning of a recessionary downturn, or a depression.

Let's see if this economic cycle proceeds as predicted.
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Dot.com 2.0 Boom and Bust?

During this past year I have been observing the same excesses that lead up to the original dot.com meltdown at the end of the last decade and earlier in this one.

Now, I am over 60 years old and I have seen these cycles many times before, and not just in the computer industry. As a matter of fact, before retiring, I used to teach economics and finance at two universities.

In industry I observed a 'melt-down' about every 8 years. 6 years of build up leads to excess that seems to require a 2 year correction.

When I have been attending conferences and even in the local Internet Café everyone seems to be buying into all of the new and latest technology – the 'bleeding-edge' stuff. Now, I did that myself when, in 1972, I purchased a Lytton EBS 1241 computer for $32,000. The storage medium was punch paper tape, and processing memory was 4K (no M, no G, no T). Like many others I went into debt to finance the purchase. Did I rue the day? You bet.

Worse than the losses of everyone who speculated in this latest real estate bubble; the value of this hardware 'crashed' to about 5% of the original value within 18 months.

Here's what I think. By far the most popular laptops that I saw at the conferences, about 80%, were Apple – MacBook Air. Now, I know that about 80% of those individuals were also living high, off their expense accounts; marketing like crazy – mostly for .com start-ups that had never made a profit, nor likely ever would.

Many of those 'start-ups' were only concepts, they had not even gotten to Alpha testing, let alone market acceptance. Stand by to watch for this next shoe to drop, the Dot.com 2.0 Boom and Bust.